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MLB known as the Major League Baseball has become popular with bettors all over the world. Many people out there are seeking for the best MLB strategies and one bet that is often looked at is the run line bets. The Line bets are similar to NFL 1.5 point spreads. However, most players as well as professional understand a ‘3’ in NFL but the values of ‘1.5’ in baseball fewer understand its value.

Let’s look at the following teams:

Team RunLine MoneyLine Total
Tampa Bay +1.5 -101 +202 OVER 10 -107
Boston Red Sox -1.5 -109 -220 UNDER 10 -103

Looking at the typical match-up between Tampa Bay and Boston an unprofessional bettor would consider Boston -1.5 (-109) at which his reasoning would be simple.

When betting on MLB run lines there are several things you need to take into consideration. Professional bettors would realize that Boston is a public team and many bettors would place bets on the favorites. Instead, the professional bettor will consider betting on the underdog against the public teams to gain little profits out of it.

A knowledgeable bettor would also have to consider the sport book that is offering a 10-cent run line than going to a sports book that offers the standard 20-cent run line in order to have 50% bettor value. Therefore, you always need to get the best price at all costs.

The knowledgeable bettor would now have to apply additional analysis and research the worthiness of the 1.5 runs at the market price just as the same way you do for NFL point spreads. Professional bettors do not look at the reduced value of the juice but rather apply additional information for analysis.

For simplicity, a bettor can convert the run lines and moneylines into percentage. For instance, the no-vig moneyline for Boston is -212 i.e (-220-202)/2 = -422/2 and represented as a percentage would show 67.9% or (212/312) * 100. The moneyline percentage indicates that Boston will win 67.9% or the time.

Now looking at the no-vig run line is -105 i.e (-109-101)/2 = -210/2 and convereted as a percentages shows as 51.2% or (105/205) * 100. This indicates that a wager on Boston -1.5 shows that it will win 51.2% of the time.

Analyzing Tampa Bay shows that the team will lose 16% (67.9-51.2) of the time by exactly 1 run. If history indicates that the favorites always won by exactly 1 run at 18% of the time for a period of 8 years then this means that the historical values as well as the market price differs thereby giving both teams a value. It can be very difficult to access how often a run line favorite wins by exactly 1 run. Some bookies provide conversion chats for better analysis on the moneylines to give out the run line price.

In order to get a fair price on the run line you need to consider whether the visitor is getting a +1.5 runs and the home team is favored. It has been observed that home teams win by more than one run when compared to visiting teams especially when the home team is leading. You also need to consider the game total to get a fair price on the run line. It does not guarantee that many runs will be scored but surely is a good indicator.

Another important factor is to look at the degree at which the team is favored. Therefore, it would be wise to play run lines against heavily favored favorites.

There are many things you need to study in order to make a smart bet but mostly you should always have at least one strategy you can base on to maximize your dividend yield.