Both players are coming off tough wins from the previous round, but it is important to notice the difference between the two matches. Soderling played a spectacular game with Llodra – both players had great serves and there were some spectacular exchanges. On the other hand, Monfils was quite lucky – Roger Federer just did not show up. So many unforced errors, so many missed chances, etc. The only thing that worked for Federer was his serve. Monfils was solid, but this win should not be overrated. In fact, Monfils was playing poorly against Becker and Verdasco and I have already had my say about Murray in the last analysis. All of that points to Soderling here.
The two have met twice and Soderling won both matches (both indoors) – the last one was just a week ago in Valencia and it was a one-sided affair. I also think that Monfils might be drained by the match against Federer – he also had some complaints about his neck, although it did not worry him much later on. The odds then were about 1.65 and I just cannot see this home advantage factor being worth such a jump, so I see value in this pick. Good luck.
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