Ok, let me explain this one, as it is based on statistics a lot. Firstly, the surface here is indoor hard, but it is not a fast one at all as we have seen in the matches played so far. Then, let's look at the actual statistics. Robin Soderling aced Murray just twice, while Roger Federer aced David Ferrer just six times - and Ferrer is a worse player on the return than Murray. If we look back at their head-to-head matches, Federer has not been getting over this line consistently and the slow court will not help. Murray is a bad match-up for him, but I am not very sure about the actual outcome of the match, as Murray has not been the best lately. However, he will definitely be up for this one and for him to have any chance to succeed, he will need to be returning well - and he knows how to do that. All in all, if Murray plays at least to his standard, this will come in quite nicely. And I fully expect him to do just that, especially since he is playing home on a surface that will suit him nicely.
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