An information that Curry might not play for the Warriors tonight is very important and if is that true Ellis will easily go to over. In previous match Golden State played with only 7 players in the rotation and Ellis has spent too much time on the court. If Curry is not playing, and I believe that he will not, Ellis will take even more shots like he usually does. In the last match against Spurs, Ellis had a horrible night but he also shot too much, 24 times, if added to that number a few more free throws he must broke this margin because his minutes on the coourt is safe.
I expect Miami to play a little more relaxed because the derby game against the Jazz passed relatively smoothly and we may see the match with a lot of points.
Arroyo will be the direct guard of Ellis, and I do not think that he will be able to guard him. Also, is known that Monta played far better at home than away.
The only problem for the bet may be a possible blow out and big point difference, but I do not believe Ellis will end up on the benc even in that case because a similar situation was with the Spurs when Curry was injured while differences across 20.
In that circumstances, Ellis stayed on the court because Warriors simply have no one to play in rotation.
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