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bet draw

I believe everyone has seen the big odds that bookies offer for the draws. That’s because it’s very hard to predict if one match will finish all even. Naturally, all of us sometimes have a good feeling about any match and just rate it valuable to bet our money on it. Betting on draws is a risky business - you could win a lot, but you could also leave your account with "the three zeros". In this article I’m going to reveal my point of view towards the draw picking.

It is good when you have the necessary football knowledge and good instinct, but it is not always about that. You also must have decent pre-match information and rate the teams with no grudges. Let’s make an algorithm.

  1. First and, I believe, most importantly, you must pick decent league. The best option will be a low-scoring league with evenly matched teams - for example - French Ligue 2. If you can find statistics about the percentage of draws in the league, it will be superb.
  2. In second place you should see the statistics of the two teams - which of the teams is ranked higher and what is the point difference. It is good if the home team is ranked below the away - it means that the statistically weaker team has a home advantage in comparison with the other. In this way things powers are being balanced and we can expect an even game, as the two teams will have their ambitions and confidence ahead of the clash. For example, team A has 3-3-1 record at home, while team B has 4-2-1 away record. This is one of the classic, according to me, situations for picking a draw.
  3. You also must check how many goals the teams are scoring and conceding home and away, respectively. If there are some frustrating numbers, for example the home team has 6:16 goal difference, you better leave this game and make a conclusion after its finish, than risk your money and having a bad feeling just because of that goal difference. Bet only when you feel sure and when you think than if one of the teams takes the lead, then the other could equalize. It’s too risky to rely only on a single eventual match progress.

Leagues with high draw probability (according to me):

  • Argentina Premier Division and Second Division
  • France Ligue 1, Ligue 2 and National
  • England Premier League, League Two, Conference
  • Greece Premier Division
  • Iran Premier Division
  • Italy Serie B, Seria C1
  • Morocco Premier Division
  • Portugal Second Division
  • Romania Premier Division
  • Russia Premier Division
  • Serbia Premier Division
  • Slovakia Premier Division
  • South Africa Premier Division
  • Spain Second Division
  • Switzerland Premier Division
  • Turkey Second Division
  • Venezuela Premier Division

You must know that every championship has specific “traditions”. For example, in Venezuela it’s generally good idea to bet on draws between much lower-placed home teams than the away ones, because the home factor is really strong there. In France you may often see a 0:0 draws; in Morocco the draw is most common result this season so far and etc.

And in the end, I want to present you two strategies, where draws could be very successfully used.

Strategy #1 - Fibonacci staking system

It is pretty simple here. You just need the Fibonacci numbers (without the zero) – 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 134… You start with the first 1 as a stake - for example 1 unit = 10 euro. You put 1 unit on @3.00 odds draw and wait. If you don’t win, just put as a stake the next Fibonacci number - in that case - it’s 1 again. This continues until you guess right your draw pick. When you win, just start from the beginning once again. If you choose your draw picks carefully and guess right 1 of 6 picks, then you should be able to make a good long-term profit. What’s important in this system? You must have a big starting bank and awesome discipline. Because putting, for example, 34 units on the 8th step requires big courage and iron discipline. You could win a lot with this system, but you could also go bankrupt, if you are not just a draw picking guy.

Strategy #2 - System betting with draws

Another good option, using draws, is the system betting. I personally started my betting career with 3,4,5/5 system, picking draws. I made my first big winning with it, when I got all the 5 draws and got the big odds. In this system, you spread your bet on 16 columns. If you hit three draws, you win a little bit more than your stake. But if you hit 4 or 5 you’re winning a lot and generally, this is one of the best draw systems. Of course, in accordance with your philosophy, you could use another system, but before picking it, just mark in which cases you will get your stake back and when you are on top. When you are not sure what you are doing yet, it's always good to start from free bets e.g NairaBet offers free bet up to N20, 000, 000 as one of their latest promotion offers. 

 

I think I explained the basics of picking a draw, or at least my way of doing it. Draws are often being neglected by the Tipster, but they shouldn’t be. If you like the idea of betting on draws just make an experimental period at first and do your statistics properly, so you could know whether it will be profitable for you.

Whatever you bet on always remember that betting should be prudent and disciplined. I wish you the best of luck!

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