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There are people who mistakenly think that stats and maths are completely insignificant in mobile and online sports betting. And while we are on the topic of mobile gambling. Well, in reality, the effectiveness of a sports betting system is similar to casino games, as both of them depend strictly on mathematics in order to generate profits.

Even if there is no obvious system like if you bet blindly, you might inadvertently gamble using mathematics correctly! It does not matter if your decisions are influenced by predictions, the news, or rumours, your profitability is precisely dependent on math.

However, you can apply statistics when you create a system, but stats are mainly used in the study of the results of the said method, as in testing the validity of the followed strategy. And even if some people might not believe that it isn't hard to convince sports fans that using the best betting apps in the UK is the easiest way to place a wager via mobile phone. So it should not be that hard to convince them that stats are important, right?


Maths in sports betting are just a simple equation

To be honest, for most people, sports betting is just a hobby, and that’s the way it should be.

But, if you spend some time on making some simple calculations, it would be possible to minimise your losses from betting and maybe even make it more than just an expensive hobby.

Most players certainly lose quite a lot of money while wagering, and this is true for both online and offline versions. Not to mention that most of the players do not track the results of their wagers. Thus, they do not systematically record how much they win and lose each month. This is one of the main reasons we lose in gambling on sports.

Thus, if you want to come out as a winner, you have to follow one simple equation. Simply consider that the average of odds you bet on is 2.00. Now just think how often your bets win. For example, 45%. This will mean that for every 100 bets you make, you will win 45 wagers, which correspond to 45 profit units since the average odds are 2.00. However, this also means that you lose 55 bets that translate to a deficit of 55 units.

If you bet €10 on average per wager, one unit will equal €10. This means that after 100 bets you will win €450 on your successful wagers and lose €550 on the losing ones. Thus, you are losing a total of €100. Thus, if you wager 100 times per month, which is about 3 matches per day, sports betting will cost you approximately €1,200 per year, which is more than the monthly salary for most people.

The example above can be represented by the equation Y=X*Z. In this case, X is the average odds and Z is the predictions' success rate. If Y is more than 1, you will be a winner in the long run. However, the smaller it is from 1, the quicker you will lose money.

This is the only math equation you must have in mind, at least for the punters who do it solely for enjoyment. Y, or the result in this equation, separates the players between losers and winners and strategies between money-losing and profitable.


How can I win in sports betting?

All of us wonder how some people manage to win in gambling. It is basically the same as asking how the Y is larger than 1. Well, the answer lies on Z and X.

In the example we gave you, we saw that X=2.00 and Z=0.45. So, in order for Y to be more than 1, either X or Z should be bigger. Thus, you should either choose higher odds or increase the success rate of your predictions.

Here are a couple of solutions:

  • Stick to the same method of picking wagers, but with better odds
  • Improve the winning probability of your betting system.

In the first solution, comparing odds is crucial, while in the latter you will have to work on the variables and parameters of your system.


Statistics in betting on sports


We have shown you how a single equation separates the losers from the winners. Since we are already on the subject of math, we should say a few words about statistics and odds.

There are a tonne of posts online that advise punters not to follow the stats if they want to be winners in betting. These articles usually claim that statistics exist to be challenged. For example, they state that the frequency of a team scoring and the historical data of the said club do not have an effect on your betting performance.

We cannot say that this is not a respectable view. However, we must not forget that there are numerous Excel sheets and apps that deal with stats in gambling. This is a fact that demonstrates that a massive percentage of punters are doing their best to beat the odds by analysing the players' and teams' statistics. If you decide to completely reject the notion of stats in sports betting, you will be condemning the people who follow it.

Moreover, we have to consider the fact that in every single sporting event, stats are reported while it unveils. There is no need to mention that major news sites keep such data for a lot of years to come.

However, you might be thinking that we have already answered the question ourselves. Stats just sell to a lot of people who think that they will become winners if they follow specific models. They are giving them the hope to keep them interested in gambling.

This is probably an explanation that we might write about in the future. However, in the present article, we have to mention that sometimes betting systems are created that rely entirely on the statistical analysis of the game. Moreover, in many movies, stats are presented as the Holy Grail of gambling. So, at least one part of these allegations has to be true.

Nevertheless, stats in sports betting are extensively applied when improving or building a specific betting system. However, we are not referring to the input variables of a system, like the statistics used in tennis matches. We are talking about the stats analysis of the systems' performance like the drawdown.

By studying how reliable a system is, based entirely on stats aggregates, you will be confident for the gambling system's future performance. This will confirm that your system is functioning properly.