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99% of the bettors around the world had put goal bets in their tickets. In the recent years this kind of bets became more various, aiming at larger number of clients or in other words - at more money. The so-called “Goal bets specialists” emerged, stating that everything is clear for them in terms of goal betting. Yes, some of them really had “worth it”, but the majority had their ups and downs and didn’t achieve anything special.

Naturally, it is hard to imagine a universal match picking system, regarding match result, number of goals, anytime goalscorer or any other bet market. Some help could be expected from us, the analysts, about which matches are worth to be betted on and why.

As you see it on the headline, this article will be oriented into the goal betting and the most proper way of picking matches, according to me. But let’s start with the core.

Undoubtedly, the most proper way (and most pleasant) of picking matches is picking, based on own impression (judgment). Let’s have an example with the 2:2 draw between Aston Villa and Manchester United (played in November). Manchester’s defense is being really shaky this season and we could have expected a goal or two from Villa. On the other hand, “Red Devils” are showing good composure in attack and are the better team, on principle, and also deserve to trust them in scoring some goals. So, logically for some, the over 2.5 goals bet seemed reasonable and if you had bet on it, basing on the mentioned-above judgment, then you would had an “excuse” ahead of your conscience – a personal estimation. That way of betting is certainly the best, but do you think that a tipster could have a direct impression on all the championships, offered by the bookmakers? I don’t think so. Regarding the matches on which we haven’t got personal opinion, we have three possibilities – to pass them by; to look for an opinion elsewhere or… to find some statistic support.

Surely, the majority of you have tried to find some logic that could “show” you the “right” matches and some of you may have succeeded. The goal-per-game statistics shows us the average of how many goals are scored and conceded per game from a certain team. A logical source for picking a goal bet, at a glance. If we see, for example, that an average of 3.12 goals are scored in the Werder Bremen matches and 2.71 goals in the Eintracht matches, then it seems natural to bet on over 2.5 goals in this game. Even if only one of the teams is participating in high-scoring games, a number of bettors would risk their money on over 2.5 goals. So far so good, but is that enough?

There’s no doubt that football is constantly developing in terms of tactics and in modern day almost every manager has his own tactics and philosophy. The approach of a certain team at home could be completely different from the approach away from home. I believe that this fact has to be reported when picking a goal bet. Here is my point of view.

Before all, you should pick a league in accordance to the bet you want to place (low-scoring one for “unders” and high-scoring one for “overs”). Here are some of them, based on my experience – Turkish Second Division, Serbian Premier Division, Moroccan Premier Division, Argentinean Primera, French Ligue 1, Ligue 2 and National are low-scoring, while German Bundesliga, Dutch Eredivisie, Belgian Premier and Second Divisions and Slovenian Premier Division are high-scoring (some other leagues could be added to this list, of course). It is really important to pick a decent league, because every one of them has its own mentality. You won’t see big odds on “under 2.5 goals” in Morocco, for example, but the probability of winning will be high.

The second step is to find a home/away table of the standings. Then you should look at the following – the average of the home team goals scored at home and the average of the away team goals scored away. If the sum of these two numbers doesn’t surpass 2.0, then you have a match with high low-scoring probability. But why exactly 2.0? It’s simple. In order to win an under bet, there have to be 0, 1 or 2 goals scored in the match. If the average sum of the goals in a virtual clash between the two teams is lower than 2.0, then it will probably lead to a low-scoring affair in the real life, as well (analogically, the threshold for the “overs” is 3.0). Here are some examples from the 12-14th November period: Kartalspor – Rizespor (0:1), OFK Beograd – Jagodina (0:1), Indjija – Metalac (1:0), Hajduk Kula – BSK Borca (0:1), Eskisehirspor – Antalyaspor (0:0), Diyarbakirspor – Karsiyaka (0:1) and Altay – Giresunspor (2:1) had an under 2.0 sum, while Skive – Fredericia (2:4), Hjorring – AB (2:1), Brussels – Lommel (2:3), Boussu – Dender (3:1), Heracles – Groningen (3:0) and Defensor – Central Espanol (1:1) had an over 3.0 sum (of course, you can’t win them all). Somewhere around here I should say that not all the “sums” are perspective. The difference between each team’s “contribution” to the sum shouldn’t be very big. I mean, you shouldn’t trust on a 1.9 sum, when the home team has scored an average of 1.9 goals at home, while the away team – an average of 0 away from home. An example from the 13-14th November is the game Mersin – Akhisar (2:1), where Mersin had scored an average of 1.2 goals at home, while Akhisar – an average of 0 away from home. The other thing you should pay attention on is the number of conceded goals by both teams. You should avoid picking under 2.5 goals in matches, in which one of teams concedes a lot – a misleading game from the last weekend was Sevojno – Cukaricki (4:0), with Cukaricki being with 1:11 away goal difference from 6 games before meeting Sevojno. The high amount of conceded goals at home is a bit smaller problem, but I recommend avoiding such teams, too. As for the overs - you also should be aware of the “contribution” difference – it shouldn’t be too big.

I will conclude, stating that every bettor has to know a thing or two about the teams, on which he is going to bet. If you do not know anything, you should spend some time going through the rankings and the results from the current and the previous season. For more thorough impression, you could make your own statistics, regarding the performances of a certain team against top5, relegation-threatened and mid-table teams.
The above-described system is “invented” by me, but I don’t consider it as something fundamental. I’ve been trying it out in the recent weeks and, so far, it has a good yield. If you do not trust it, just make virtual statistics in the coming weeks. According to me, it could turn out to be a decent tool for a long-term profit – the aim of every bettor.

Finally, I would like to thank every one of you, who spent some time reading this article. I sincerely hope that it help you in your strive to win. I wish you the best of luck!